National and regional trends in MRI utilization in the face of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Marked reductions in imaging exams have been documented during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to examine the effect of the two waves of COVID-19 on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) utilization at the national and regional level. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective-archive study was conducted in Israel, comparing March-December 2020 with March-December 2018 and 2019. Data on MRI utilization were obtained from the national MRI registry, while data on confirmed COVID-19 cases, by place of residence, were obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health open COVID-19 database. RESULTS: The number and rate of MRI examinations decreased during the first COVID-19 wave, with the steepest drop in April 2020: 47.5% relative decrease compared to April 2019, and 42.2% compared to 2018. This was followed by a compensatory increase between the waves and a return to almost pre-pandemic levels of use, with just a modest decrease, during the second, more intense COVID wave, compared with the previous year. Existing differences between regions increased during the pandemic. The rate ratio of MRI exams between Tel-Aviv and the Northern periphery increased from 2.89 in April 2019 to 3.94 in April 2020. Jerusalem metropolitan region, with the largest burden of COVID disease, demonstrated only a modest decrease (1%) in MRI utilization during the first 10 months of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: At the national level, time trends in reduced MRI utilization followed the first wave of COVID-19, and were accompanied by increased regional disparities. These changes were not explained by differences in the burden of COVID-19 disease but might be explained by unequal distribution of MRI scanners among regions. Reduced utilization was not evident during the second wave, nor at the beginning of the third wave, despite higher COVID-19 case load, demonstrating adaptation to the new normal. Patterns of MRI utilization might help policy-makers and healthcare managers predict the behavior of imaging as well as other sectors, such as elective surgical procedures, during an ongoing pandemic. This forecast might help to manage the lasting effects of the pandemic, including extended waiting times, in the months and years following its remission. In preparation for future national emergencies, timely and detailed data on MRI utilization can serve as a "sensor" for a wide array of diagnostic and interventional medical activities, providing policy-makers with an updated snapshot to guide their response at the regional and national levels.

Predicting endoscopic activity recovery in England after COVID-19: a national analysis.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a substantial reduction in gastrointestinal endoscopies, creating a backlog of procedures. We aimed to quantify this backlog nationally for England and assess how various interventions might mitigate the backlog. METHODS: We did a national analysis of data for colonoscopies, flexible sigmoidoscopies, and gastroscopies from National Health Service (NHS) trusts in NHS England's Monthly Diagnostic Waiting Times and Activity dataset. Trusts were excluded if monthly data were incomplete. To estimate the potential backlog, we used linear logistic regression to project the cumulative deficit between actual procedures performed and expected procedures, based on historical pre-pandemic trends. We then made further estimations of the change to the backlog under three scenarios: recovery to a set level of capacity, ranging from 90% to 130%; further disruption to activity (eg, second pandemic wave); or introduction of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) triaging. FINDINGS: We included data from Jan 1, 2018, to Oct 31, 2020, from 125 NHS trusts. 10 476 endoscopy procedures were done in April, 2020, representing 9·5% of those done in April, 2019 (n=110 584), before recovering to 105 716 by October, 2020 (84·5% of those done in October, 2019 [n=125 072]). Recovering to 100% capacity on the current trajectory would lead to a projected backlog of 162 735 (95% CI 143 775-181 695) colonoscopies, 119 025 (107 398-130 651) flexible sigmoidoscopies, and 194 087 (172 564-215 611) gastroscopies in January, 2021, attributable to the pandemic. Increasing capacity to 130% would still take up to June, 2022, to eliminate the backlog. A further 2-month interruption would add an extra 15·4%, a 4-month interruption would add an extra 43·8%, and a 6-month interruption would add an extra 82·5% to the potential backlog. FIT triaging of cases that are found to have greater than 10 µg haemoglobin per g would reduce colonoscopy referrals to around 75% of usual levels, with the backlog cleared in early 2022. INTERPRETATION: Our work highlights the impact of the pandemic on endoscopy services nationally. Even with mitigation measures, it could take much longer than a year to eliminate the pandemic-related backlog. Urgent action is required by key stakeholders (ie, individual NHS trusts, Clinical Commissioning Groups, British Society of Gastroenterology, and NHS England) to tackle the backlog and prevent delays to patient management. FUNDING: Wellcome/EPSRC Centre for Interventional and Surgical Sciences (WEISS) at University College London, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, and DATA-CAN, Health Data Research UK.